tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:18UA 1311 3h 07m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 57m 99% 81%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 08:50 → DEN 11:00WN 4264 1h 45m Denver DEN 12:45 → SNA 14:10WN 1794 8h 20m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:01 → DFW 08:16AA 1232 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:47 → SNA 11:14AA 1939 8h 13m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → FLL 10:17 → DEN 12:43UA 204 3h 26m Denver DEN 16:09 → SNA 17:45UA 1497 10h 28m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:14 → IAH 17:10UA 2724 3h 09m Houston IAH 20:19 → SNA 22:05UA 326 9h 51m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:00 → DFW 09:17AA 2558 3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:23 → SNA 13:31AA 2684 9h 31m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → FLL 12:15 → ORD 14:46AA 1851 3h 42m Chicago ORD 18:28 → SNA 20:53AA 1179 11h 38m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314 3h 35m Houston IAH 12:20 → SNA 13:53UA 1533 9h 53m 100% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON