Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3219 GEG 13:58 → BOI 16:17 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest QX 2110 GEG 17:35 → BOI 19:54 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 3219 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 13:58	BOI 16:17	21%	9%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
AS 3215 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 19:24	BOI 21:38	23%	8%	0.2%	85%
QX 2110 Horizon	GEG 17:35	BOI 19:54	25%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON