Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:18 pm at Spokane); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: AS 3215 at 19:24 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops today


AS 3215 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 19:24	BOI 21:38	18%	9%	0.2%	85%
QX 2110 Horizon	GEG 17:35	BOI 19:54	33%	11%	0.9%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → BOI 00:05 +1DL 2111	5h 55m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	GEG 17:30 → SMF 19:25WN 1890	2h 15m Sacramento	SMF 21:40 → BOI 00:17 +1WN 3587	5h 47m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:37 → SEA 19:01DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → BOI 23:51DL 4090 · flown by SkyWest	5h 14m	100%	62%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:02 → SEA 17:18DL 4145 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Seattle	SEA 19:40 → BOI 22:18DL 3692 · flown by SkyWest	5h 16m	92%	60%
Southwest Details →	GEG 17:10 → LAS 19:35WN 1951	2h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → BOI 01:06 +1WN 2253	6h 56m	95%	57%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:14 → LAX 19:02DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	57m Los Angeles	LAX 19:59 → BOI 22:58DL 4148 · flown by SkyWest	5h 44m	77%	56%
Southwest Details →	GEG 18:10 → PHX 20:45WN 1885	1h 50m Phoenix	PHX 22:35 → BOI 01:49 +1WN 4332	6h 39m	91%	54%
Alaska Details →	GEG 17:44 → SEA 19:03AS 3306 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Seattle	SEA 21:29 → BOI 23:56AS 445	5h 12m	100%	35%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GEG 19:08 → SLC 21:55DL 1024	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → BOI 00:05 +1DL 2111	3h 57m	64%	53%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:16 → LAX 19:10DL 3799 · flown by SkyWest	49m Los Angeles	LAX 19:59 → BOI 22:58DL 4148 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	72%	53%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:30 → SEA 17:57DL 4165 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m Seattle	SEA 19:40 → BOI 22:18DL 3692 · flown by SkyWest	4h 48m	72%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON