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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2218 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2218 GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 293 GEG 13:26 → SEA 14:40 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
DL 2218 Delta Flight history → GEG 05:25 SEA 06:40 5% 2% 0.4% 95%
OO 3316 SkyWest GEG 10:29 SEA 11:45 11% 5% 0.6% no record
DL 3824 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 11:30 SEA 12:54 11% 4% 0.6% 90%
DL 3790 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 07:00 SEA 08:22 11% 4% 0.7% 92%
AS 221 Alaska GEG 06:02 SEA 07:12 13% 3% 0.7% no record
AS 279 Alaska Flight history → GEG 06:13 SEA 07:24 13% 3% 0.7% 94%
DL 4165 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 16:30 SEA 17:57 13% 4% 0.6% 85%
DL 3830 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 09:27 SEA 10:55 14% 4% 0.6% 82%
DL 3754 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 13:00 SEA 14:25 15% 4% 0.6% 84%
DL 4145 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 16:01 SEA 17:17 17% 4% 0.6% 92%
DL 3857 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 17:37 SEA 19:01 17% 5% 0.6% 93%worse than usual
AS 3306 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 17:44 SEA 19:03 17% 5% 0.6% 86%
OO 3129 SkyWest GEG 08:25 SEA 09:41 17% 4% 0.7% no record
AS 360 Alaska Flight history → GEG 07:13 SEA 08:23 19% 3% 0.7% 91%
DL 3832 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 19:59 SEA 21:22 19% 5% 0.7% 89%
OO 156 SkyWest GEG 09:18 SEA 10:34 20% 5% 0.6% no record
AS 364 Alaska Flight history → GEG 07:23 SEA 08:34 24% 3% 0.6% 79%
AS 423 Alaska GEG 16:40 SEA 17:50 25% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 726 Alaska GEG 12:40 SEA 13:50 28% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 455 Alaska Flight history → GEG 13:34 SEA 14:45 30% 3% 0.6% 83%worse than usual
AS 371 Alaska Flight history → GEG 19:45 SEA 20:59 33% 5% 0.6% 45%
AS 293 Alaska Flight history → GEG 13:26 SEA 14:40 35% 4% 0.6% 62%
AS 2065 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record GEG 05:07 SEA 06:15 4% 0% 0.0% 96%
AS 2262 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record GEG 11:40 SEA 12:50 8% 2% 3.8% 92%
AS 2069 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record GEG 09:06 SEA 10:18 21% 3% 0.9% 79%
AS 2119 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record GEG 14:39 SEA 15:49 35% 8% 0.0% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON