Today: AA 6431 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet today AA 6431 GJT 05:39 → PHX 06:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 4994 GJT 18:54 → PHX 19:37 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6431 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 05:39	PHX 06:20	13%	5%	0.2%	92%
MQ 3617 Envoy	GJT 12:04	PHX 12:58	15%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 4995 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 12:05	PHX 12:46	18%	7%	0.2%	92%worse than usual
OO 4937 SkyWest	GJT 18:35	PHX 19:17	25%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 4994 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 18:54	PHX 19:37	27%	13%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON