Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:56 pm at Hilton Head Island)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5590 at 16:14, 37%.

Nonstops today


DL 5590 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	HHH 16:14	LGA 18:25	37%	14%	1.5%	60%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HHH 15:05 → ORD 16:51UA 3542 · flown by Republic	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → LGA 23:25UA 2827	8h 20m	95%	65%
American Details →	HHH 16:55 → CLT 18:19AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	3h 36m Charlotte	CLT 21:55 → LGA 23:56AA 2031	7h 01m	99%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON