Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:09 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1948 Southwest	HOU 14:58	BHM 16:49	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 437 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:45	BHM 16:30	22%	4%	0.6%	69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:52 → DAL 07:05WN 1636	1h 35m Dallas	DAL 08:40 → BHM 10:29WN 4	4h 37m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:10 → MDW 10:40WN 1294	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 14:05 → BHM 15:45WN 496	7h 35m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	1h 40m Dallas	DAL 09:50 → BHM 11:30WN 1271	4h 30m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954	1h 35m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → BHM 11:40WN 434	4h 30m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:05 → MCO 08:30WN 4483	53m Orlando	MCO 09:23 → BHM 10:07WN 143	5h 02m	93%	79%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:05 → BNA 11:00WN 5068	1h 25m Nashville	BNA 12:25 → BHM 13:30WN 225	4h 25m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 42m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:35WN 1957	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 22:20 → BHM 23:25WN 4923	5h 45m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 10:18 → DFW 11:43AA 5071 · flown by PSA	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:42 → BHM 14:42AA 5063 · flown by PSA	4h 24m	70%	52%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:04 → BHM 17:06AA 5072 · flown by PSA	4h 20m	62%	43%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → BHM 20:31AA 2384	4h 17m	61%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON