Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1954 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1954 HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 478 HOU 14:10 → BNA 16:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1954 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:10	BNA 09:10	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 2011 Southwest	HOU 07:30	BNA 09:27	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3505 Southwest	HOU 09:00	BNA 10:57	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 5068 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:05	BNA 11:00	11%	2%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
WN 1955 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:00	BNA 12:55	15%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 1958 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:05	BNA 23:05	21%	5%	0.6%	79%
WN 2012 Southwest	HOU 12:50	BNA 14:47	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1957 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:40	BNA 19:35	25%	6%	0.6%	50%
WN 4637 Southwest	HOU 14:45	BNA 16:42	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 478 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:10	BNA 16:05	28%	6%	0.6%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON