Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1701 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1701 HOU 08:15 → DCA 12:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 2031 HOU 14:17 → DCA 18:12 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1701 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:15	DCA 12:20	16%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 2030 Southwest	HOU 08:05	DCA 12:01	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4888 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:55	DCA 23:55	22%	8%	0.6%	48%
WN 1968 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:00	DCA 18:05	26%	9%	0.7%	67%
WN 2031 Southwest	HOU 14:17	DCA 18:12	30%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON