Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4888
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4888 · HOU → DCA
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
7pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Visibility down to 0.666667 mi forecast at DCA that day
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 0.666667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.