Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4888
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4888 · HOU → DCA
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at HOU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
HOU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.19 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.