Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:51 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3068 Southwest	HOU 20:35	JAX 23:51	33%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4797 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:35	JAX 23:55	34%	8%	0.8%	50%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 10:20 → JAX 12:59WN 2942	4h 49m	94%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 10:40 → STL 12:45WN 2084	2h 50m St Louis	STL 15:35 → JAX 18:35WN 3933	6h 55m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:25 → AUS 10:20WN 270	2h 20m Austin	AUS 12:40 → JAX 16:13WN 1604	5h 48m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:05 → BNA 11:00WN 5068	2h 40m Nashville	BNA 13:40 → JAX 16:15WN 542	6h 10m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	HOU 13:30 → MDW 15:55WN 2041	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 19:20 → JAX 22:40WN 2792	8h 10m	98%	70%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:10 → BNA 16:05WN 478	2h 55m Nashville	BNA 19:00 → JAX 21:40WN 4624	6h 30m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:20 → MDW 13:45WN 1019	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 14:55 → JAX 18:16WN 4987	5h 56m	95%	69%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	5h 52m	93%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → JAX 22:24AA 2263	5h 10m	62%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON