Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2013 at 05:50, 8%.

Safest bet that day WN 2013 HOU 05:50 → LGA 10:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2190 HOU 17:25 → LGA 21:55 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2013 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:50	LGA 10:15	8%	2%	0.7%	96%
WN 682 Southwest	HOU 05:51	LGA 10:11	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2014 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:15	LGA 15:45	30%	7%	0.6%	59%
WN 4392 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	LGA 19:10	42%	13%	0.7%	5%
WN 2190 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:25	LGA 21:55	46%	11%	0.7%	28%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:50 → MSY 09:00WN 1796	50m New Orleans	MSY 09:50 → LGA 13:45WN 3008	4h 55m	81%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON