Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 320 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 320 HOU 08:30 → MAF 10:06 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4800 HOU 22:40 → MAF 00:10 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 320 Southwest	HOU 08:30	MAF 10:06	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 2022 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:30	MAF 10:55	13%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 2072 Southwest	HOU 11:50	MAF 13:25	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 368 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:25	MAF 13:55	25%	5%	0.6%	58%
WN 4995 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:05	MAF 17:35	26%	6%	0.6%	68%
WN 2073 Southwest	HOU 18:00	MAF 19:35	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4800 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:40	MAF 00:10	34%	8%	0.7%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON