Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2078 at 08:43, 12%.

Safest bet today WN 2078 HOU 08:43 → MCO 12:05 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4937 HOU 20:30 → MCO 23:51 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2078 Southwest	HOU 08:43	MCO 12:05	12%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 3075 Southwest	HOU 21:50	MCO 01:11	25%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 2034 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:20	MCO 15:50	31%	6%	0.4%	79%worse than usual
WN 4685 Southwest	HOU 13:17	MCO 16:38	32%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 1732 Southwest	HOU 15:05	MCO 18:26	37%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 2036 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:05	MCO 21:30	38%	10%	0.7%	67%
WN 4937 Southwest	HOU 20:30	MCO 23:51	41%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON