Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4859 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:00	MIA 00:30	30%	6%	0.5%	27%
WN 561 Southwest	HOU 20:25	MIA 23:56	31%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:05 → MCO 08:30WN 4483	2h 10m Orlando	MCO 10:40 → MIA 11:49WN 449	5h 44m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:05 → BNA 11:00WN 5068	1h 15m Nashville	BNA 12:15 → MIA 15:35WN 2952	5h 30m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:20 → STL 09:25WN 4084	3h 20m St Louis	STL 12:45 → MIA 16:25WN 2901	8h 05m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 02m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954	2h 20m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → MIA 14:50WN 581	6h 40m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:30WN 3797	2h 15m Baltimore	BWI 11:45 → MIA 14:20WN 4737	7h 55m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	3h 20m Dallas	DAL 11:30 → MIA 15:20WN 1361	7h 20m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:10 → BNA 16:05WN 478	3h 35m Nashville	BNA 19:40 → MIA 23:00WN 4779	7h 50m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 10:18 → DFW 11:43AA 5071 · flown by PSA	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:45 → MIA 16:43AA 3117	5h 25m	72%	47%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:39 → MIA 19:40AA 3083	5h 54m	74%	46%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:41 → MIA 22:38AA 2050	5h 24m	62%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON