Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:54 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:17, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching West Palm Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (West Palm Beach is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	6h 34m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:30DL 1195	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → PBI 22:22DL 1606	6h 58m	96%	75%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:00 → BNA 12:55WN 1955	2h 20m Nashville	BNA 15:15 → PBI 18:25WN 4848	6h 25m	98%	70%
American Details →	HOU 09:52 → DFW 11:05AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:29 → PBI 17:19AA 2282	6h 27m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 15:27 → PBI 17:22DL 1458	5h 42m	94%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:25 → BWI 19:35WN 184	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 20:40 → PBI 23:20WN 1045	6h 55m	73%	56%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:50 → PBI 22:45AA 2467	5h 31m	61%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON