Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:09 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2091 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:15	TUL 16:45	21%	4%	0.2%	52%
WN 2643 Southwest	HOU 14:00	TUL 15:36	24%	4%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:35WN 1957	2h 40m Nashville	BNA 22:15 → TUL 00:02 +1WN 746	6h 22m	100%	81%
American Details →	HOU 09:52 → DFW 11:05AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:57 → TUL 15:16AA 5420 · flown by PSA	5h 24m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:56 → DAL 18:10WN 44	3h 45m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:14WN 1477	6h 18m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:15 → DEN 09:45WN 1971	50m Denver	DEN 10:35 → TUL 13:19WN 1776	5h 04m	81%	74%
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:30 → DAL 18:40WN 46	3h 15m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:05WN 1419	5h 35m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	7h 24m	99%	72%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:03 → DAL 13:16WN 24	3h 10m Dallas	DAL 16:26 → TUL 17:45WN 4248	5h 42m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:55 → DEN 14:25WN 3069	2h 55m Denver	DEN 17:20 → TUL 19:55WN 4635	7h 00m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:35 → AUS 16:30WN 352	1h 15m Austin	AUS 17:45 → TUL 19:19WN 294	3h 44m	71%	50%
American Details →	HOU 20:23 → DFW 21:50AA 3351 · flown by Envoy	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	3h 24m	57%	37%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → TUL 19:46AA 2889	3h 32m	53%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON