Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 487 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 487 IAH 05:22 → SFO 07:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1341 IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 487 United Flight history →	IAH 05:22	SFO 07:22	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 2125 Southwest	HOU 08:05	SJC 10:04	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2102 Southwest	HOU 08:05	OAK 10:09	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1845 United	IAH 06:32	SFO 08:44	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1768 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SFO 09:25	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	IAH 08:20	SFO 10:25	17%	5%	0.6%	68%
UA 1882 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	SJC 12:03	17%	4%	0.6%	79%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	IAH 21:59	SFO 00:05	17%	5%	0.7%	80%
UA 589 United Flight history →	IAH 15:30	SFO 17:35	19%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 382 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SFO 18:30	21%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 2756 United Flight history →	IAH 12:58	SFO 15:03	24%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 2358 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	SFO 11:35	25%	6%	0.6%	74%
UA 1976 United Flight history →	IAH 19:35	SFO 21:44	26%	6%	0.7%	33%
UA 1341 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	SFO 20:10	28%	6%	0.6%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 07:35 → OAK 09:10WN 5052	5h 40m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	1h 17m Phoenix	PHX 08:12 → OAK 10:12WN 3435	5h 52m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:30 → SAN 08:40WN 3824	1h 10m San Diego	SAN 09:50 → OAK 11:25WN 4166	5h 55m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON