tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 42 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1636 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1636 HOU 05:52 → DAL 07:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1929 IAH 18:53 → DFW 20:25 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time
Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
WN 1636 Southwest Flight history → HOU 05:52 DAL 07:03 5% 1% 0.8% 95%
WN 4 Southwest Flight history → HOU 07:00 DAL 08:10 8% 1% 0.8% 94%
AA 2551 American Flight history → IAH 05:02 DFW 06:19 8% 4% 2.7% 90%
WN 8 Southwest Flight history → HOU 08:00 DAL 09:10 11% 2% 0.8% 88%
WN 14 Southwest Flight history → HOU 09:30 DAL 10:35 12% 2% 0.7% 88%
AA 700 American Flight history → IAH 06:02 DFW 07:28 12% 4% 2.1% 90%
MQ 3931 Envoy HOU 06:01 DFW 07:16 12% 4% 0.8% no record
UA 358 United Flight history → IAH 07:23 DFW 08:50 13% 3% 0.6% 86%
WN 16 Southwest Flight history → HOU 10:03 DAL 11:14 14% 2% 0.7% 91%
WN 22 Southwest Flight history → HOU 11:30 DAL 12:40 14% 2% 0.7% 86%
WN 30 Southwest Flight history → HOU 13:30 DAL 14:40 14% 3% 0.7% 76%
UA 1183 United Flight history → IAH 21:37 DFW 22:59 15% 7% 0.6% 62%
AA 5492 American flown by PSA Flight history → HOU 06:03 DFW 07:29 15% 7% 1.3% 86%
AA 3002 American Flight history → IAH 07:00 DFW 08:31 15% 6% 2.7% 81%
UA 2074 United Flight history → IAH 09:31 DFW 10:57 16% 5% 0.6% 82%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history → HOU 15:00 DAL 16:10 16% 4% 0.7% 77%
WN 40 Southwest Flight history → HOU 16:00 DAL 17:10 16% 3% 0.7% 75%
WN 46 Southwest Flight history → HOU 17:30 DAL 18:40 16% 4% 0.7% 73%
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history → HOU 09:52 DFW 11:07 17% 5% 0.7% 94%worse than usual
AA 3583 American flown by Envoy Flight history → IAH 16:18 DFW 17:48 17% 5% 0.6% 70%
WN 52 Southwest Flight history → HOU 19:00 DAL 20:10 18% 4% 0.7% 75%
UA 1388 United Flight history → IAH 14:46 DFW 16:16 18% 6% 0.6% 77%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history → IAH 08:56 DFW 10:08 19% 4% 0.6% 81%
UA 1439 United Flight history → IAH 16:20 DFW 17:46 19% 8% 0.6% 70%
WN 64 Southwest Flight history → HOU 22:00 DAL 23:10 19% 4% 0.7% 65%
UA 1949 United Flight history → IAH 19:59 DFW 21:25 20% 8% 0.6% 71%
WN 54 Southwest Flight history → HOU 20:30 DAL 21:40 20% 4% 0.7% 72%
AA 3026 American Flight history → IAH 06:53 DFW 08:09 22% 6% 2.1% 70%
UA 1535 United Flight history → IAH 18:05 DFW 19:31 22% 7% 0.6% 71%
AA 3193 American Flight history → IAH 09:27 DFW 10:51 22% 8% 1.8% 78%
AA 3351 American flown by Envoy Flight history → HOU 20:23 DFW 21:50 24% 5% 0.8% 73%
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → HOU 12:46 DFW 14:09 25% 12% 0.8% 74%
AA 2512 American Flight history → IAH 14:04 DFW 15:30 25% 9% 1.6% 49%
AA 5071 American flown by PSA Flight history → HOU 10:18 DFW 11:43 26% 9% 1.2% 64%
AA 1916 American Flight history → IAH 10:39 DFW 12:03 27% 8% 1.8% 65%
OH 5173 PSA IAH 10:39 DFW 12:01 27% 9% 0.7% no record
AA 4923 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → IAH 19:49 DFW 21:15 27% 12% 0.7% 73%
AA 2166 American IAH 11:42 DFW 13:07 27% 9% 1.3% no record
AA 5002 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → HOU 16:14 DFW 17:38 28% 14% 0.9% 60%
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → HOU 18:49 DFW 20:15 32% 12% 1.0% 52%
AA 1929 American Flight history → IAH 18:53 DFW 20:25 33% 10% 1.3% 23%
UA 4024 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:05 DFW 13:34 20% 11% 0.0% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON