Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 32 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3179 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3179 HOU 05:30 → LAX 06:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3131 IAH 16:19 → ONT 17:56 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3179 Southwest	HOU 05:30	LAX 06:54	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 417 United Flight history →	IAH 05:55	LAX 07:21	9%	3%	0.6%	97%
WN 4391 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:45	ONT 08:55	9%	2%	0.6%	77%
WN 4690 Southwest	HOU 08:10	LGB 09:37	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2019 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:45	LGB 09:00	10%	1%	0.7%	81%
DL 1216 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:10	LAX 08:30	11%	4%	0.6%	94%
WN 4337 Southwest	HOU 08:00	ONT 09:20	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2600 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAX 08:57	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 2110 United Flight history →	IAH 06:00	LAX 07:29	13%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
WN 2007 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:30	LAX 08:55	14%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 469 United Flight history →	IAH 09:53	LAX 11:30	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	IAH 16:09	LAX 17:30	16%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 1743 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	LAX 18:08	17%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 1383 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	SNA 10:59	17%	6%	0.6%	91%
UA 1951 United Flight history →	IAH 14:54	LAX 16:27	18%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 1945 United Flight history →	IAH 14:58	LAX 16:39	18%	6%	0.6%	89%
WN 175 Southwest	HOU 11:45	LAX 13:15	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2460 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	LAX 14:06	19%	5%	0.6%	87%
WN 2008 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:55	LAX 13:20	19%	3%	0.6%	73%
UA 1533 United	IAH 12:20	SNA 13:51	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 4923 SkyWest	IAH 15:32	LAX 17:27	19%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2780 United Flight history →	IAH 12:30	SNA 14:03	20%	8%	0.6%	86%
UA 2761 United Flight history →	IAH 20:12	SNA 21:45	20%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 2755 United Flight history →	IAH 18:33	LAX 20:10	20%	7%	0.6%	81%
UA 483 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	LAX 21:26	22%	8%	0.6%	73%
UA 2095 United Flight history →	IAH 20:15	LAX 21:54	22%	8%	0.6%	76%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	IAH 22:03	LAX 23:38	22%	6%	0.6%	75%
AA 5005 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 20:15	LAX 21:55	24%	9%	0.7%	80%
UA 1563 United Flight history →	IAH 20:31	ONT 21:55	24%	7%	0.6%	79%
WN 4802 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:25	LAX 20:50	28%	8%	0.6%	50%
F9 1755 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:02	LAX 17:30	28%	10%	0.8%	75%
F9 3131 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:19	ONT 17:56	31%	9%	0.7%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	55m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → ONT 09:05WN 759	4h 45m	92%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON