Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:33 pm at Huntsville); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 3581 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 18:27	DCA 21:30	25%	7%	1.3%	67%
MQ 4249 Envoy	HSV 18:19	DCA 21:14	26%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Huntsville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HSV 16:20 → ATL 18:25DL 3026	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	6h 32m	97%	65%
American Details →	HSV 15:37 → DFW 17:48AA 3580 · flown by Envoy	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	7h 22m	93%	58%
American Details →	HSV 15:41 → CLT 18:09AA 6006 · flown by Piedmont	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:15AA 2432	5h 34m	95%	52%
United Details →	HSV 16:47 → IAH 19:04UA 4893 · flown by CommuteAir	46m Houston	IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224	6h 12m	75%	51%
Delta Details →	HSV 16:02 → LGA 19:20DL 5496 · flown by Endeavor	2h 00m New York	LGA 21:20 → DCA 22:58DL 1825	5h 56m	86%	38%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HSV 19:01 → CLT 21:29AA 6007 · flown by Piedmont	58m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	3h 52m	74%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON