Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 4909 HSV 12:16 → IAH 14:02 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest G7 4485 HSV 14:55 → IAH 17:14 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 4909 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	HSV 12:16	IAH 14:02	20%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 4893 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	HSV 16:47	IAH 19:04	22%	4%	0.7%	72%
G7 4485 GoJet	HSV 14:55	IAH 17:14	28%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON