Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1998 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 1998 IAD 06:43 → EWR 08:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1831 IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1998 United	IAD 06:43	EWR 08:09	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 2147 United Flight history →	IAD 06:33	EWR 07:52	13%	3%	0.8%	97%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	IAD 08:25	EWR 09:51	13%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 1997 United Flight history →	IAD 22:29	EWR 23:59	22%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 1498 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	EWR 14:01	30%	10%	0.7%	69%
UA 1831 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	EWR 19:10	46%	13%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON