Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:38 pm at Dulles); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 4849 at 22:33, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 4849 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 22:33	GSO 00:01	20%	4%	0.6%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	6h 13m	93%	76%
American Details →	IAD 19:17 → CLT 20:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA	2h 14m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → GSO 23:57AA 2802	4h 40m	95%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → GSO 23:57AA 2802	3h 35m	64%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON