Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3682 IAD 22:05 → LGA 23:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time Riskiest UA 3698 IAD 12:40 → LGA 14:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3682 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 22:05	LGA 23:30	24%	8%	0.7%	58%
UA 3698 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:40	LGA 14:10	28%	8%	0.7%	68%
UA 6116 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:19	LGA 09:48	18%	6%	2.9%	82%
UA 4077 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:15	LGA 18:42	23%	13%	13.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON