Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3505 at 12:58 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day YX 3505 IAD 12:58 → MCI 15:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2057 IAD 17:15 → MCI 19:03 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3505 Republic	IAD 12:58	MCI 15:03	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3528 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:55	MCI 14:45	9%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 1165 United	IAD 18:07	MCI 19:58	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2057 United Flight history →	IAD 17:15	MCI 19:03	18%	6%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON