tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:06 am at Dulles)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 3h 03m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 9h 17m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 7h 55m 93% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:39 → ORD 17:02UA 1393 3h 16m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 10h 12m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 10h 46m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 1h 28m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 8h 42m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 42m San Francisco SFO 19:09 → ONT 20:46UA 2478 11h 06m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:46 → ONT 12:07AA 2956 8h 53m 93% 70%
FrontierDetails → IAD 06:01 → LAS 08:23F9 4277 1h 35m Las Vegas LAS 09:58 → ONT 11:17F9 1283 8h 16m 92% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 48m Salt Lake City SLC 10:42 → ONT 11:43DL 1173 7h 28m 72% 67%
AmericanDetails → IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50AA 1904 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:52 → ONT 23:59AA 1534 7h 28m 70% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON