Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3709 at 12:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 3709 IAD 12:57 → PWM 15:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2064 IAD 22:10 → PWM 23:51 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3709 Republic	IAD 12:57	PWM 15:05	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 3548 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 08:20	PWM 10:07	9%	3%	1.0%	97%
UA 3651 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 17:30	PWM 19:27	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
YX 3538 Republic	IAD 17:27	PWM 19:22	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2064 United Flight history →	IAD 22:10	PWM 23:51	19%	5%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON