Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1930 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1930 IAD 08:26 → SAN 10:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 201 IAD 19:53 → SAN 22:17 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1930 United Flight history →	IAD 08:26	SAN 10:49	15%	5%	0.6%	94%
UA 2163 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SAN 15:03	20%	6%	0.6%	85%
UA 2054 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	SAN 20:23	25%	8%	0.6%	83%
AS 201 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 19:53	SAN 22:17	26%	6%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	7h 53m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	58m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 38m	87%	81%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935	51m Houston	IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491	7h 21m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON