Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2101 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2101 IAD 09:00 → SEA 11:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 737 IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2101 United Flight history →	IAD 09:00	SEA 11:51	10%	5%	0.6%	91%
UA 2241 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	SEA 15:55	11%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 1824 United	IAD 13:11	SEA 16:00	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 375 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 09:34	SEA 12:10	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
AS 361 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 09:30	SEA 12:16	15%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 1015 Delta Flight history →	IAD 07:00	SEA 09:45	15%	4%	0.8%	79%
AS 409 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 06:03	SEA 08:48	22%	4%	0.7%	63%
UA 326 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SEA 20:46	22%	6%	0.6%	77%
AS 737 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 18:14	SEA 21:09	25%	6%	0.6%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:46 → MSP 20:56DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	8h 12m	86%	77%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734	7h 34m	87%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON