tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 9h 01m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 3h 15m Denver DEN 11:37 → SJC 13:24UA 1256 9h 54m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015 2h 00m Seattle SEA 11:45 → SJC 14:15DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest 10h 15m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 15m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → DEN 10:10UA 792 1h 35m Denver DEN 11:45 → SJC 13:24UA 2808 8h 09m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → IAH 08:39UA 1935 1h 21m Houston IAH 10:00 → SJC 12:03UA 1882 8h 33m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:39 → ORD 17:02UA 1393 2h 56m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 10h 04m 93% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:21 → SJC 11:20AA 2046 8h 06m 71% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON