Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 683 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 683 IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2953 IAD 12:28 → TPA 14:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 683 United Flight history →	IAD 09:00	TPA 11:32	11%	4%	0.7%	91%
UA 2277 United Flight history →	IAD 12:49	TPA 15:15	17%	6%	0.8%	86%
UA 1140 United Flight history →	IAD 17:15	TPA 19:52	20%	8%	0.9%	75%
F9 2953 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 12:28	TPA 14:59	25%	10%	1.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON