tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 05:22, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:22 → SFO 07:22UA 487 1h 11m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 6h 35m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:02UA 2643 3h 13m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 8h 18m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 88% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:58 → SFO 15:03UA 2756 2h 51m San Francisco SFO 17:54 → BUR 19:20UA 1321 8h 22m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 2h 45m San Francisco SFO 20:20 → BUR 21:47UA 1367 8h 17m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 15m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 8h 57m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 30m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 7h 43m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:58 → SFO 15:03UA 2756 1h 12m San Francisco SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764 6h 44m 75% 56%
AmericanDetails → IAH 14:35 → PHX 15:26AA 2357 1h 11m Phoenix PHX 16:37 → BUR 18:07AA 4944 · flown by SkyWest 5h 32m 73% 53%
AmericanDetails → IAH 08:56 → DFW 10:08AA 3598 · flown by Envoy 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:56 → BUR 12:05AA 1617 5h 09m 58% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON