Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:09 pm at Houston); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OO 408 SkyWest	IAH 20:06	CHA 23:09	35%	14%	0.5%	no record
UA 5094 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 19:55	CHA 23:06	35%	17%	0.6%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chattanooga is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 15:27 → DTW 19:15DL 1865	1h 36m Detroit	DTW 20:51 → CHA 22:38DL 4894 · flown by Endeavor	6h 11m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → CHA 22:13DL 1366	6h 35m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → CHA 23:55DL 1059	6h 04m	95%	73%
American Details →	IAH 16:18 → DFW 17:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:01 → CHA 22:59AA 425	5h 41m	83%	53%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:10 → LGA 18:59DL 2088	1h 09m New York	LGA 20:08 → CHA 22:28DL 5276 · flown by Endeavor	7h 18m	77%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → CHA 22:13DL 1366	4h 22m	61%	47%
Delta Details →	IAH 18:53 → ATL 21:57DL 1651	55m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → CHA 23:50DL 1904	3h 57m	55%	41%
American Details →	IAH 14:04 → DFW 15:30AA 2512	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:30 → CHA 19:41AA 5115 · flown by PSA	4h 37m	58%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON