Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3162 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3162 IAH 06:10 → CLT 09:47 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 2864 IAH 18:12 → CLT 21:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3162 American Flight history →	IAH 06:10	CLT 09:47	12%	7%	1.1%	84%
AA 2011 American Flight history →	IAH 08:25	CLT 11:57	14%	5%	1.0%	91%
AA 1930 American Flight history →	IAH 10:18	CLT 13:56	22%	6%	1.3%	79%
AA 1919 American Flight history →	IAH 15:06	CLT 18:51	22%	9%	1.8%	58%
F9 2396 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 07:23	CLT 10:59	23%	9%	1.3%	81%
AA 2088 American	IAH 14:59	CLT 18:29	24%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 1920 American Flight history →	IAH 17:26	CLT 21:10	25%	8%	2.1%	73%
AA 1590 American	IAH 09:51	CLT 13:19	26%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 2364 American	IAH 17:49	CLT 21:17	30%	10%	2.7%	no record
UA 2864 United Flight history →	IAH 18:12	CLT 21:59	33%	9%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
UA 3988 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:25	CLT 11:02	11%	2%	0.9%	89%
UA 6197 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:10	CLT 16:02	16%	8%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON