Today: UA 2415 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet today UA 2415 IAH 06:13 → DEN 07:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3227 IAH 10:26 → DEN 12:05 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 2415 United	IAH 06:13	DEN 07:37	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 2643 United Flight history →	IAH 06:30	DEN 08:02	8%	2%	0.2%	96%
UA 1450 United Flight history →	IAH 09:32	DEN 11:08	11%	4%	0.2%	85%
UA 1686 United	IAH 08:32	DEN 10:17	13%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 2816 United Flight history →	IAH 08:30	DEN 10:05	14%	3%	0.2%	97%worse than usual
UA 1066 United Flight history →	IAH 22:10	DEN 23:57	15%	5%	0.6%	90%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	DEN 08:52	15%	3%	0.2%	77%
UA 685 United	IAH 20:29	DEN 22:27	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 3229 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 06:30	DEN 08:14	16%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 2168 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	DEN 14:17	17%	4%	0.2%	86%
UA 2787 United	IAH 10:41	DEN 12:21	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 1409 United Flight history →	IAH 10:31	DEN 12:07	20%	4%	0.2%	83%
UA 2767 United Flight history →	IAH 15:00	DEN 16:43	21%	4%	0.2%	75%
UA 484 United Flight history →	IAH 16:21	DEN 18:23	22%	5%	0.2%	80%
UA 1654 United Flight history →	IAH 18:19	DEN 20:14	22%	7%	0.6%	66%
F9 3205 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 22:09	DEN 23:58	24%	9%	0.8%	80%
UA 470 United Flight history →	IAH 16:29	DEN 17:54	27%	4%	0.2%	65%
F9 3227 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 10:26	DEN 12:05	35%	8%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON