Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2551 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2551 IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1929 IAH 18:53 → DFW 20:25 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2551 American Flight history →	IAH 05:02	DFW 06:19	8%	4%	2.7%	90%
AA 700 American Flight history →	IAH 06:02	DFW 07:28	12%	4%	2.1%	90%
UA 358 United Flight history →	IAH 07:23	DFW 08:50	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 1183 United Flight history →	IAH 21:37	DFW 22:59	15%	7%	0.6%	62%
AA 3002 American Flight history →	IAH 07:00	DFW 08:31	15%	6%	2.7%	81%
UA 2074 United Flight history →	IAH 09:31	DFW 10:57	16%	5%	0.6%	82%
AA 3583 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IAH 16:18	DFW 17:48	17%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 1388 United Flight history →	IAH 14:46	DFW 16:16	18%	6%	0.6%	77%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IAH 08:56	DFW 10:08	19%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 1439 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	DFW 17:46	19%	8%	0.6%	70%
UA 1949 United Flight history →	IAH 19:59	DFW 21:25	20%	8%	0.6%	71%
AA 3026 American Flight history →	IAH 06:53	DFW 08:09	22%	6%	2.1%	70%
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DFW 19:31	22%	7%	0.6%	71%
AA 3193 American Flight history →	IAH 09:27	DFW 10:51	22%	8%	1.8%	78%
AA 2512 American Flight history →	IAH 14:04	DFW 15:30	25%	9%	1.6%	49%
AA 1916 American Flight history →	IAH 10:39	DFW 12:03	27%	8%	1.8%	65%
OH 5173 PSA	IAH 10:39	DFW 12:01	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 4923 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 19:49	DFW 21:15	27%	12%	0.7%	73%
AA 2166 American	IAH 11:42	DFW 13:07	27%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 1929 American Flight history →	IAH 18:53	DFW 20:25	33%	10%	1.3%	23%
UA 4024 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:05	DFW 13:34	20%	11%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON