Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: UA 4010 at 21:42, 39%.

Safest bet today UA 4010 IAH 21:42 → ELP 23:05 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 4009 IAH 19:47 → ELP 21:10 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Weather 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 4010 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 21:42	ELP 23:05	39%	30%	1.0%	82%worse than usual
UA 3983 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 16:40	ELP 18:03	39%	27%	1.0%	85%worse than usual
OO 5389 SkyWest	IAH 15:25	ELP 15:59	42%	15%	0.4%	no record
UA 4009 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 19:47	ELP 21:10	42%	27%	1.0%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON