Today looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 22–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1368 IAH 14:01 → LGA 18:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2181 IAH 12:00 → LGA 16:44 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1368 Delta	IAH 14:01	LGA 18:26	22%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 2088 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:10	LGA 18:59	22%	8%	0.7%	73%
DL 1438 Delta	IAH 18:39	LGA 23:04	23%	8%	0.5%	no record
UA 2249 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LGA 19:04	24%	10%	0.4%	69%
UA 2495 United	IAH 17:21	LGA 22:11	24%	11%	0.4%	no record
DL 2943 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:35	LGA 23:20	24%	9%	0.4%	60%
UA 2857 United Flight history →	IAH 17:15	LGA 21:59	26%	10%	0.5%	71%
UA 775 United	IAH 14:42	LGA 19:33	27%	11%	0.4%	no record
UA 2682 United Flight history →	IAH 18:28	LGA 22:51	28%	10%	0.3%	88%worse than usual
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	29%	13%	0.4%	61%
UA 2783 United Flight history →	IAH 18:31	LGA 23:14	30%	9%	0.4%	42%
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	30%	9%	0.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON