Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2245 at 07:20, 11%.

Safest bet today UA 2245 IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4978 IAH 19:23 → MCO 23:05 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2245 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	MCO 10:51	11%	6%	0.4%	94%
UA 3874 United	IAH 08:02	MCO 11:42	14%	8%	0.4%	no record
UA 2310 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	MCO 13:00	19%	9%	0.5%	86%
UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	33%	11%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
UA 1571 United Flight history →	IAH 16:50	MCO 20:29	35%	11%	1.2%	82%worse than usual
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	36%	9%	1.2%	81%worse than usual
UA 2323 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	MCO 23:22	39%	13%	1.3%	77%worse than usual
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	MCO 21:58	41%	14%	1.3%	80%worse than usual
F9 2418 Frontier	IAH 20:23	MCO 00:01	50%	23%	1.8%	no record
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:16	MCO 16:53	52%	22%	1.5%	77%worse than usual
F9 4978 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 19:23	MCO 23:05	53%	21%	1.8%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON