Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:53 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2439 at 18:24, 36%.

Nonstops today


UA 2439 United Flight history →	IAH 18:24	ORF 22:30	36%	11%	0.4%	63%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 15:27 → DTW 19:15DL 1865	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	7h 05m	98%	78%
United Details →	IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388	1h 49m Dulles	IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677	6h 09m	91%	76%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 21:54 → ORF 23:44DL 2338	8h 06m	97%	71%
United Details →	IAH 11:55 → ORD 14:51UA 2827	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → ORF 21:43UA 5686 · flown by SkyWest	8h 48m	95%	70%
United Details →	IAH 12:00 → EWR 16:46UA 2371	3h 13m Newark	EWR 19:59 → ORF 21:42UA 3439 · flown by Republic	8h 42m	97%	69%
United Details →	IAH 10:57 → EWR 15:34UA 1340	2h 06m Newark	EWR 17:40 → ORF 19:22UA 3478 · flown by Republic	7h 25m	94%	68%
American Details →	IAH 15:06 → CLT 18:51AA 1919	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → ORF 23:45AA 2674	7h 39m	97%	65%
United Details →	IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168	3h 41m Denver	DEN 17:58 → ORF 23:33UA 680	10h 00m	99%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 16:18 → DFW 17:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:39 → ORF 22:39AA 1379	5h 21m	63%	38%
American Details →	IAH 10:48 → DCA 15:03AA 5526 · flown by PSA	56m Washington	DCA 15:59 → ORF 17:12AA 5338 · flown by PSA	5h 24m	60%	33%
JetBlue Details →	IAH 10:55 → BOS 15:30B6 932	1h 17m Boston	BOS 16:47 → ORF 18:44B6 1813	6h 49m	55%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON