Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 40–43% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2690 IAH 18:29 → SAN 19:50 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest UA 2407 IAH 20:03 → SAN 21:24 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2690 United Flight history →	IAH 18:29	SAN 19:50	40%	14%	0.5%	73%worse than usual
UA 1911 United Flight history →	IAH 20:00	SAN 21:41	42%	10%	0.5%	87%worse than usual
UA 2407 United Flight history →	IAH 20:03	SAN 21:24	43%	10%	0.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON