Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 453 IAH 06:02 → SEA 08:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 692 IAH 18:30 → SEA 21:18 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 453 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 06:02	SEA 08:40	17%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 2654 United Flight history →	IAH 08:00	SEA 10:47	18%	5%	0.6%	97%worse than usual
AS 439 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 14:38	SEA 17:21	18%	6%	0.6%	72%
UA 2228 United	IAH 12:12	SEA 15:03	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 241 Alaska Flight history →	IAH 06:02	SEA 08:37	19%	4%	0.7%	85%
UA 2638 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SEA 19:12	20%	8%	0.6%	67%
UA 2456 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	SEA 22:42	22%	8%	0.6%	73%
UA 2205 United Flight history →	IAH 10:00	SEA 12:47	22%	7%	0.6%	77%
UA 692 United Flight history →	IAH 18:30	SEA 21:18	25%	8%	0.6%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816	1h 16m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:21UA 1424	6h 51m	91%	76%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	1h 14m Denver	DEN 08:01 → SEA 10:00UA 2271	6h 45m	97%	75%
Frontier Details →	IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:14F9 3229	59m Denver	DEN 09:13 → SEA 11:20F9 1175	6h 50m	84%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON