Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 487 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 487 IAH 05:22 → SFO 07:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1341 IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 487 United Flight history →	IAH 05:22	SFO 07:22	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1845 United	IAH 06:32	SFO 08:44	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1768 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SFO 09:25	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	IAH 08:20	SFO 10:25	17%	5%	0.6%	68%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	IAH 21:59	SFO 00:05	17%	5%	0.7%	80%
UA 589 United Flight history →	IAH 15:30	SFO 17:35	19%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 382 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SFO 18:30	21%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 2756 United Flight history →	IAH 12:58	SFO 15:03	24%	6%	0.6%	68%
UA 2358 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	SFO 11:35	25%	6%	0.6%	74%
UA 1976 United Flight history →	IAH 19:35	SFO 21:44	26%	6%	0.7%	33%
UA 1341 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	SFO 20:10	28%	6%	0.6%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SFO 08:53AA 1949	5h 51m	87%	71%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:10 → LAX 08:30DL 1216	50m Los Angeles	LAX 09:20 → SFO 10:42DL 1715	5h 32m	78%	60%
United Details →	IAH 16:20 → SAN 17:41UA 2751	46m San Diego	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	5h 47m	75%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON