tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1882 United Flight history → IAH 10:00 SJC 12:03 17% 4% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 38m Chicago ORD 09:37 → SJC 12:14UA 307 9h 10m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:30 → DEN 10:05UA 2816 1h 40m Denver DEN 11:45 → SJC 13:24UA 2808 6h 54m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 7h 00m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 11m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:09 → ATL 15:21DL 1682 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 8h 43m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 52m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 7h 31m 88% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 14:30 → ORD 17:22UA 699 2h 36m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 10h 13m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:21 → SJC 11:20AA 2046 8h 18m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 52m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 6h 05m 74% 65%
AmericanDetails → IAH 08:32 → PHX 09:24AA 1937 46m Phoenix PHX 10:10 → SJC 12:25AA 2631 5h 53m 70% 57%
AmericanDetails → IAH 18:53 → DFW 20:25AA 1929 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940 6h 05m 67% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON