Today: UA 326 at 20:19 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–33%.

Safest bet today UA 326 IAH 20:19 → SNA 22:04 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2780 IAH 12:30 → SNA 14:03 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 326 United	IAH 20:19	SNA 22:04	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2761 United Flight history →	IAH 20:12	SNA 21:45	23%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 1383 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	SNA 10:59	28%	4%	0.4%	91%worse than usual
UA 1533 United	IAH 12:20	SNA 13:52	31%	6%	0.4%	no record
UA 2780 United Flight history →	IAH 12:30	SNA 14:03	33%	6%	0.4%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON