tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:54 am at Houston); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1976 at 20:30, 31%.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1976 United IAH 20:30 TUS 21:23 31% 11% 0.6% no record
UA 4040 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 20:00 TUS 20:42 17% 11% 0.0% 83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:21 → SLC 16:33DL 1532 3h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 20:30 → TUS 21:29DL 4054 · flown by SkyWest 9h 08m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 20:57 → TUS 23:26UA 5688 · flown by SkyWest 9h 56m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAH 10:31 → DEN 12:07UA 1409 3h 31m Denver DEN 15:38 → TUS 16:45UA 2049 8h 14m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → IAH 14:25 → PHX 15:16AA 2710 1h 49m Phoenix PHX 17:05 → TUS 17:54AA 4126 · flown by Envoy 5h 29m 82% 68%
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:09 → LAX 17:30DL 1143 1h 51m Los Angeles LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 87% 60%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:35 → SFO 14:40UA 2611 1h 54m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → TUS 18:48UA 5962 · flown by SkyWest 8h 13m 88% 59%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 21:05 → TUS 21:49DL 1251 9h 11m 95% 59%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439 1h 38m Seattle SEA 18:59 → TUS 22:01AS 638 9h 23m 92% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:10UA 1341 47m San Francisco SFO 20:57 → TUS 23:26UA 5688 · flown by SkyWest 7h 21m 51% 38%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:21 → DEN 18:23UA 484 47m Denver DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762 5h 51m 66% 38%
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890 52m Atlanta ATL 21:05 → TUS 21:49DL 1251 6h 58m 52% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON