tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:06 pm at Houston); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
YV 4047 Mesa IAH 14:40 TYS 17:57 17% 5% 0.5% no record
YV 4005 Mesa IAH 18:34 TYS 21:51 17% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:35 → MSP 17:26DL 2678 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 20:19 → TYS 23:31DL 5527 · flown by Endeavor 7h 56m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 21:04 → TYS 22:07DL 5224 · flown by Endeavor 6h 29m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAH 15:27 → DTW 19:15DL 1865 1h 18m Detroit DTW 20:33 → TYS 22:12DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor 5h 45m 88% 74%
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072 6h 01m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 1h 24m Dulles IAD 22:10 → TYS 23:49UA 4304 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 14m 85% 71%
AmericanDetails → IAH 13:36 → ORD 16:35AA 1915 2h 34m Chicago ORD 19:09 → TYS 21:58AA 5001 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 90% 70%
UnitedDetails → IAH 13:41 → ORD 16:39UA 2458 1h 19m Chicago ORD 17:58 → TYS 20:38UA 795 5h 57m 87% 69%
AmericanDetails → IAH 14:04 → DFW 15:30AA 2512 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TYS 21:59AA 5453 · flown by PSA 6h 55m 92% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAH 16:51 → ATL 20:13DL 2890 51m Atlanta ATL 21:04 → TYS 22:07DL 5224 · flown by Endeavor 4h 16m 55% 45%
DeltaDetails → IAH 18:53 → ATL 21:57DL 1651 56m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072 3h 59m 56% 43%
AmericanDetails → IAH 14:04 → DFW 15:30AA 2512 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:20 → TYS 19:30AA 644 4h 26m 49% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON