Today: G7 4507 at 20:08 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet today G7 4507 IAH 20:08 → XNA 22:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5597 IAH 18:16 → XNA 20:04 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


G7 4507 GoJet	IAH 20:08	XNA 22:04	18%	8%	0.7%	no record
C5 4249 CommuteAir	IAH 12:27	XNA 13:43	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
G7 4485 GoJet	IAH 18:32	XNA 20:23	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 5264 SkyWest	IAH 14:44	XNA 16:37	30%	10%	0.5%	no record
UA 5597 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 18:16	XNA 20:04	33%	9%	0.4%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON