Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:38 pm at Wilmington); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:48, is the safest bet: 52% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	4h 51m	73%	52%
American Details →	ILM 18:57 → PHL 20:42AA 6012 · flown by Piedmont	1h 13m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	5h 55m	72%	49%
American Details →	ILM 18:28 → CLT 19:08AA 5416 · flown by PSA	1h 07m Charlotte	CLT 20:15 → MIA 22:21AA 2321	3h 53m	72%	43%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON